Update, 21 October: Cabinet has approved the government's plan for the coming farming season, including measures for the predicted El Niño drought, as Zimbabwe forecasts a cereal shortfall of 663,188 tonnes, The Herald and 263Chat report. Our original report on the US$500 million El Niño fund, from 15 October, follows below.

The grain gap

The country expects to produce 1,607,198 tonnes of cereals in the 2026/27 season against a national requirement of 2,270,386 tonnes, Acting Information Minister Prof Paul Mavima told Tuesday's post-Cabinet briefing, according to both outlets.

The gap will be covered by the strategic grain reserve and limited imports. The government is now aiming for a 600,000-tonne reserve by October 2027, built by buying grain from this year's summer harvest and the 2026 and 2027 winter crops and stored in new AI-powered silos, both outlets report. Last week officials spoke of a 450,000-tonne target (see below).

Prof Mavima named two threats to the season: a predicted "super El Niño", and geopolitical tensions pushing up fuel and fertiliser prices and disrupting supplies, The Herald reports.

At a glance

1.61m tonnes of cereals expected, against 2.27m tonnes needed

600,000 tonnes: grain reserve target by October 2027

7,603,250 Pfumvudza/Intwasa plots established, 47.52% of a 16 million target

2,236,203 cattle could be at risk from drought in 2027

What the plan includes

Farming: more than 112,000 hectares have been set aside for irrigated maize, to reduce reliance on rain. The Pfumvudza/Intwasa plots established so far cover 475,203 hectares (Herald, 263Chat).

Fertiliser: duty-free imports of both basal and top-dressing fertiliser will be allowed. "Noting the elevated price and anticipated logistics delays, the duty-free importation for both basal and top-dressing fertilisers will be allowed to meet the expected shortages in local production," Prof Mavima said (Herald, 263Chat). The Herald adds that Statutory Instrument 214 of 2025 provides for imports of 150,000 tonnes of ammonium nitrate and 100,000 tonnes of urea.

Livestock: ward drought mitigation centres, started in 2024, are being set up with the aim of one in each of the 1,527 rural wards, offering dipping, feeding and marketing for cattle (Herald, 263Chat).

Household goods: households can keep importing basic goods duty-free until March 2028 under Statutory Instrument 59 of 2006, The Herald reports.

The Herald says the plan builds on lessons from the 2024–25 season, which it describes as Zimbabwe's worst drought since 1980.

What we don't know yet

How much the plan will cost, or how it links to the US$500 million fund below. The briefing, as reported, did not say.

How much grain will need to be imported.

Whether the predicted El Niño will happen. It is a forecast, and the rains will decide the outcome.

Original report, 15 October: Government plans US$500m El Niño fund as maize harvest forecast falls

The government is putting together a US$500 million cash and grain reserve to cushion the country against an expected El Niño drought, Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube and ministry officials said on Wednesday, 14 October.

Officials disclosed the plan at an online media briefing on the sidelines of the IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok, Thailand.

How the fund is made up

Finance Permanent Secretary George Guvamatanga said half the fund would be cash and half grain. "Of the half a billion, US$250 million is cash and US$250 million will be grain, so that will give us a very strong start into the year," he said, according to The Herald.

The grain side includes maize, small grains and wheat bought from local farmers. Guvamatanga told The Herald that the government expects to have the full US$500 million fund "by the end of the year", with further funding in the 2027 budget.

Reuters reported that the government would make provision for the US$250 million cash and an equal amount for grain purchases in the 2027 national budget, which is due to be presented next month.

Ncube told the briefing he wanted about US$250 million "in terms of back pocket" by 1 January next year to respond to El Niño, The Herald reported.

Grain already bought

Officials said the government has already bought about 200,000 tonnes of maize from local farmers for the strategic grain reserve. Guvamatanga told The Herald the figure was "over 200 000 tonnes". "We are buying maize from local farmers, which is actually our preference, rather than importation," he said.

He added that "there might not be need for us to import any maize to support the strategic grain reserves". According to The Herald and ZimTimes, the government also aims to build strategic grain reserves of 450,000 tonnes over successive seasons.

Harvest and growth forecasts

Reuters reports that the government projects a 2027 maize harvest of 1.6 million tonnes, nearly 30% lower than in 2026, mainly because of the forecast drought. Reuters says Zimbabwe needs about 2.2 million tonnes of maize a year, including roughly 400,000 tonnes for livestock feed.

Reuters also reports that the government has lowered its 2027 economic growth forecast to 3.5% from 5%, citing the expected impact of El Niño on agriculture.

What this means

The fund is a plan, built partly from grain already bought and partly from money still to be set aside in the budget. It is not yet money spent on relief. The drought itself is a forecast: Zimbabwe's seasonal outlook points to below-normal rainfall, frequent dry spells and above-normal temperatures from October 2026 to March 2027, according to The Herald and ZimTimes.

The Herald notes that the eventual impact will depend on the rains, how crops perform, and how much support affected households and farmers need.

The government is also targeting one million hectares under the Pfumvudza/Intwasa climate-smart farming programme this season, according to The Herald and ZimTimes.

Reuters reports that the 2027 national budget is due to be presented next month. Zimbo Grapevine will report the final allocation when it is announced.

Sources: The Herald (Wallace Ruzvidzo) via Zimbabwe Situation, 21 Oct 2026: https://www.zimbabwesituation.com/news/measures-to-counter-el-nino-threat-get-cabinet-nod/ · 263Chat, 20 Oct 2026: https://www.263chat.com/zimbabwe-faces-cereal-shortfall-as-el-nino-fears-mount/ · Reuters via CNBC Africa, 14 Oct 2026: https://www.cnbcafrica.com/2026/zimbabwe-plans-500-million-cash-grain-reserve-to-offset-el-nino · The Herald via Zimbabwe Situation, 15 Oct 2026: https://www.zimbabwesituation.com/news/us500m-el-nino-protection-fund-on-cards/ · ZimTimes, 14 Oct 2026: https://zimtimes.co.zw/2026/10/14/zimbabwe-sets-up-us500m-fund-to-cushion-economy-against-el-nino-drought/